Although not a core part of Cadence investment case, which is the brownfield restart of the Azteca iron ore plant in Brazil as part of the wider restart of the larger Amapá project, the Sonora lithium project has value in our view. Whether this value is realised as part of the new litigation as part of the UK-Mexico BIT or just a purchase by Ganfeng to simplify planning for any restart of the development of its Sonora project, we believe that Cadence’s share of Sonora is significant.

We still see fair value at 14.6 per share for Cadence and this is before any upside from the litigation with the Mexican government.